Published September 22, 1999
Undoubtedly home-based appliances, in the next century, will include the computer and the Internet. But much of ad-agency hype is pure guesswork under the pressure to pop a multi-billion dollar winner by the time we’re all singing Auld Lang Syne.
Disneyland’s imaginative dare of the 1960s was to future-shock modernism by building a monorail, an all plastic house, and video-phones. None of them caught on; however, they did guess some things right, like the trash compactor. But the home of today’s future will assuredly be adapted from necessity.
Gone is the domination of the three television networks. Less popular are the 100-channels in the sky, and nothing [worthwhile] to watch. And now, 800 million Web pages on the Internet, growing at 40,000 new sites per week, and [some say] not much more being offered than before.
The Yankee Group reports that 15% of US households use more than one personal computer, and 37% of all computer owning households (17 million) want to connect them together. DataQuest projects that the home-networking industry by 2002 will be worth $2,000M annually. The expanding use of the Internet and falling personal computer prices contribute to that growth.
The concept of the modern home is littered with entertainment and time-saving gadgets. Adequate quality time is a consequence of absorbing data quickly. We must not feel guilty for doing nothing, being alone with one’s thoughts without reaching for the remote control.
Instead of watching TV in one room, all will go to their own rooms: Dad, Mom and Junior each on the Internet at the same time; researching fly-tying, gardening tips, and homework assignments. This magic is not hard, but PC manufacturers say they have solved the problem. How about it? They’ll sell you something called a networking kit: just another black box that’s a duplication of the other more complicated devices already in use.
Compaq and Quantex hope to persuade you, with their all-in-one appliance for $2,199, that home networking is not just for the technically astute. Not only does it slice and dice, it also comes with a mobile processor, 64MB RAM, a 56K modem and something they call the “Internet Zone” and “HomeFree Phoneline.” Are you impressed?
Intel’s AnyPoint interconnects multiple computers to a single phone line for Internet uses. Although the audio quality is degraded, the device is designed for normal telephone calls too while one or all the computers are connected to the Internet. It shares printers and files between computers; but that’s nothing new. The subtle suggestion, from folks like Compaq, is that home networked computers will be simple, easy to use, reliable for 30-years without maintenance. Ahh?
The home appliance must be like a toaster: push the button, and it works without referring to the operator’s manual. Flip a switch and the lights are on, any time; lift the phone, and you hear dial-tone.
Still, it’s unfair to condemn the hula-hoop or the Twist dance craze. Something more ridiculous might just catch on. Consider, if you dare, the Refrigerator-Internet-Oven. That’s right; it defrosts frozen foods, cooks your meals to order by remote control, and it scans barcodes to reorder groceries automatically over the home’s dedicated Internet line to the supermarket. Well, that’s someone’s oxygen-deprived imagination.
Legitimate Internet-based businesses would like to deliver home services like security, energy management, emergency health care, and electronic commerce.
An alliance of electric-utilities, telephone, and computer companies propose a standard protocol [set of rules], that link consumer appliances to the Internet. They intend to connect TVs, stereos, VCRs with alarms, electric meters and even heaters in the greenhouse, controlled from somewhere out there.
The alliance members are IBM, Oracle, Motorola, Lucent, Sun Microsystems, Sybase, Philips Electronics, Alcatel Cable & Wireless, Ericsson, Nortel, and Enron’s Communications. Noticeably absent is Microsoft who wants you to buy into their operating system, baring all others.
Open Service Gateway (OSG) will use a programming language, familiar to the computing community, as Java. Java functions with new software applications on any kind of computer system. Mark Bregman, general manager of IBM’s Pervasive Computing Group, said the new standard will be, “a single gateway to a vast array of appliances.”
“The household environment is complicated by multiple standards,” Bregman said. “It would be easier to access all those devices through just one portal.” Devices in the home should plug together and communicate over home networks. Business opportunities would flourish.