Published January 03, 2001
The unpredictability of high tech in 2000 was evidenced by the sudden but expected stock market down-turns. The forecasts for unabated expansion imploded forcing an industry-wide re-evaluation. Two steps forward; one step back.
Investors were, as usual, anxious to show a profit from the Net, easing the traditional retailers dread of lost market share. Personalization of selling things has been widely adopted more by E-business than E-commerce. The responsiveness of the vendor and their ease of navigation to useful information will be the benchmarks for adaptive changes.
Service to existing customers and prospects is once again rewarded and encouraged. Less impersonal automation and prompt/courteous answers to queries earns buyers’ loyalty.
Successful E-businesses, regardless of their actual net worth and inventory, are fashioned to be more like your Mom-n-Pop corner store. More than a shopping cart, retail online suppliers are pleasing buyers with a full compliment of useful information about products and services. Customers want to know more about the company, its management and staff.
Business-to-Business (B2B) exchanges have outpaced the tech-industry average even after the mid-April stock market correction. Maximizing efficiency of procurement, distribution and inventory management over the Internet has been demonstrated by VerticalNet and CommerceOne.
The Open-Source movement has only modestly instilled confidence to big corporations to release source code for their projects development. IBM did invest $200M to build Linux (a flavor of Unix operating system) development centers in Asia. Intel invested in its eighth Linux project while Dell Computer, NEC USA and Hewlett-Packard announced plans of their own. Apple Computer is designing a totally new Graphical User Interface (GUI) for MacOS-X based upon Unix/BSD, easing the complexity; expect that release in the first quarter of 2001.
The mapping of the Human Genome was accelerated to completion in June, 2000. Craig Venter’s Celera Genomics efficiently streamlined and accelerated their private competition to the government’s project. Commercialization of the information to find cures for disease and genetic health conditions has begun.
Politicians are still typically sceptical. Issues of commerce, taxation, encryption, and monopolies have the legislative, executive and judicial branches embroiled. Technology is still not recognized as politically relevant. Foreign worker visas and supercomputing export regulations are insignificant to the vastly broader influences of education, labor and health care. Commerce via information infrastructure remains sidelined.
Internet access expanded and costs dropped in 2000. Ever so slowly the metro-city pockets of fast and affordable Internet DSL, cable and wireless extend out into rural towns and communities. Returning to the 56 kilobit per second dialup, for those who can go faster, is an ugly nightmare. The “for Free” access providers like NetZero and WorldSpy failed outright primarily because of poor customer service and high acquisition costs.
Venture funders are not so preoccupied with the next hot idea but with nurturing their existing companies through these fallow times. Money still abounds if only sufficient talent were ready to fill the ample technology positions.
Conventional observers note that Europe’s Internet market lags behind the United States by two years. Their comparative stagnation has been due to a cautious entrepreneurial climate and imposing “Internet taxes.” The European Union continues to critically scrutinize Microsoft’s antitrust conviction, and the America Online/Time Warner merger. Widespread wireless adoption has been their crown jewel.
The Application Service Provider is still too new to predict acceptance. The concept of lowering costs by subscribing to a compliment of newest applications over the Net has firmly rooted. It appeals to corporations and individuals alike who desire to escape the drudgery of programs on each user’s computer. Instead, programs are accessed at an ASP center over the Internet.
Data Corporation’s earlier prediction that the ASP market would reach $2,000M by 2003 has now been revised by the Gartner Group to $25,000M by 2004. The complexity of popular microcomputer software that must be licensed, installed, learned, maintained, and debugged has fanned the flame for easier, more reliable and lighter-weight replacements or alternatives. ASP is one option endorsed by such corporations as Oracle, Cisco and Sun Microsystems.